DownturnTrend in Continuation, Structural Upgrade and Differentiation in Acceleration

-Analysis of the industrial operation and market development of China machinetool & tool industry in the first half of 2015

In the first half of 2015 China'smachine tool & tool industry and its market continued with the downwardtrend, and further presented the changing features of structural upgrading anddifferentiation. According to statistics data from both CMTBA’s key liaisonnetwork and Chinese Customs, we analyzed the operation and development trend ofChina machine tool & tool industry and its market in the first half of the year.

A.  Theoperation profile of the industry in the first half of the year

Under the impact of the marketdemand continuing to weaken, from January to June, the operation of machine tool& tool industry presented an obvious inertial decline trend. The statisticsof the key liaison network of the industry in June showed that companies whose mainbusiness income, total industrial output value and sales value at year-on-yeardecline had reached close to 70% out of all companies in the industry. Amongthem, unprofitable companies accounted for close to 40%. In the first half ofthe year, the industrial operation highlighted the following circumstances.

a.   Demandfurther weakened, sales continued to decline

From January to June in 2015, neworders of metal working machine tools were 6.3% less than that of last year.Among them, the new order of metal cutting machine tool was a y-o-y less of8.7%; the new order of metal forming machine tool increased 4.3% over last year.During the same period, the industry's main business revenue was a y-o-ydecrease of 4.6%, and the main business revenue of metal working machine tool wasa y-o-y fall of 6.4%. Among them, the main business revenue of metal cuttingmachine tool had a decrease of 6% on yearly basis; the main business revenue ofmetal forming machine tool was a y-o-y fall of 8.7%.

b.Production fell sharply, inventories remained high

From January to June in 2015, the outputof metal working machine tool fell 15.3% on a yearly basis. Among them, the outputof metal cutting machine tool fell 14.8% compared with a year ago, the output ofmetal forming machine was 17.5% less than the same time last year.  The industry's finished inventories was ay-o-y rise of 4.1% over the same period, and the inventory of metal workingmachine tool was a decrease of 0.9% over last year. Among them, the inventory ofmetal cutting machine tool was a y-o-y decrease of 0.5%, and inventory of metalforming machine tool was down 3.3% compared with the same period of last year.

c.Profit continued to decline*, the loss was on the rise

From January to June in 2015, thetotal profit of the whole industry fell 16.6% on a yearly basis, and the totalprofit of metal working machine tool was a y-o-y decrease of 29.9%. Among them,the total profit of metal cutting machine tool decreased 207.1% over last year,and the total profit of metal forming machine tool was a y-o-y minus 10.9%. Overthe same period, the unprofitable enterprises accounted for 39.4% out of theentire industry, and the unprofitable enterprises of metal working machine toolaccounted for 43.5%. Among them, the unprofitable enterprises of metal cuttingmachine tool were 48.6%, and the unprofitable enterprises of metal formingmachine tool were 18.2%.

d.Exports maintained growth, the growth rate fell again

From January to June in 2015,machine tool exports totaled USD5.393 billion, a y-o-y rise of 2.3%. Its growthrate fell 16.2% on year on year basis. Among them, the metal working machinetool exports totaled USD1.595 billion, a y-o-y increase of 3.7%; metal cuttingmachine tool exports totaled USD1.044 billion, a y-o-y rose of 8%; metalforming machine tool exports was USD 514 million, a y-o-y minus of 4%.

B.   The latest features of the market in the firsthalf of the year

a.    Total demand continued to decline

Under the influence of domesticdemand decline and investment growth falling, in the first half of this year,the domestic machine tool output and imports showed a weaker trend. From Januaryto June in 2015, the accomplishment of total accumulated social investment infixed assets was a y-o-y increase of 11.4%, and it was 9.3% for the secondindustry. The growth rate declined a y-o-y 5.9% and 5% respectively. Totalmachine tool & tool imports over the same period totaled USD7.39 billion, ay-o-y decrease of 9.3% ; metal working machine tool imports totaled USD4.242billion, a y-o-y minus of 14.1% ; metal cutting machine tool imports totaled USD3.382billion, a y-o-y negative growth of 15.3% ; metal forming machine tool imports totaledUSD861 million, a y-o-y 9.2% less than that last year; tools & measurers importstotaled USD750 million, a y-o-y decrease of 2.6% . Therefore, in the first halfof the year, domestic machine tool & tool consumer market scale furtherdeclined.

b.   Theupgrade of demand structure accelerated

The upgrade of market demandstructure accelerated is reflectedin the industrial operation and import statistics data. The specificperformance is:

The output value of CNC rate of metal working machine tool productscontinued to rise. The main reason was the sharp decrease of the output of traditionalmachine tool products. From January to June in 2015, the output value of CNCrate of metal working machine tool products was 75.3%, a y-o-y increase of 4.3percentage points.

   for cutting tool, theproportion of low-end products (high-speed steel drill) of domestically madecutting tool fell sharply, while the imported cutting tools mainly meeting theneeds of medium-high end market maintained rapid growth.

C.   Change and Estimation

(1) The emerging manufacturingindustry mainly driven by consumption has been quickly surpassing the demand oftraditional heavy industry driven mainly by investment. The different marketsegments, sub-sectors and enterprises’ operation would be furtherdifferentiation in this process.

(2) Seeing from the whole industry,whether metal working machine tools, tools & measurers, functional componentsand CNC system are all facing the dramatic shrink of market demand for ordinarylow-end products. Due to the high proportion of ordinary low-end products inthe product structure of the industry, so the acceleration of upgrading productstructure would be the primary task to deal with the change of market demandstructure.

(3) The total quantity andstructure of export are experiencing positive changes. The exports of metal workingmachine tool maintained relatively fast growth, whose proportion in totalexports continuingly increases. Strengthening export business and utilizing thecycle difference between international market and the economic entities could dispersethe impact of mono-reliance of single market fluctuation on the operation ofthe enterprises.

(4)It is predicted the scale ofChina machine tool & tool market in 2015 would be declined slightly, and theoperation of the industry would also operate in the downward interval.

(CMTBA)

*:excluding the influence of individual enterprise’s profit-surge